Nimbus — strategy comparison

Simple rule (market-priced bets)

Settled
15732
of 15937 logged
Total net P&L
-$701.90
fees +$275.45
Mean net per trade
$-0.0446
Mean Brier (market)
0.1934
lower is better
Hit rate
66.7%

V0 model

Settled
14945
of 15090 logged
Total net P&L
-$755.10
fees +$261.96
Mean net per trade
$-0.0505
Mean Brier (V0)
0.2590
lower is better
Hit rate
56.0%

Paired comparison (same tickers)

n paired
13012
Mean Δ P&L (V0 − rule)
+0.0054
Paired t-stat
+2.52
positive → V0 beats rule
Brier Δ (market − V0)
-0.0720
positive → V0 better calibrated

Equity curves

simple ruleV0
DateSimple cum P&LV0 cum P&L
2026-05-07-$1.53-$1.90
2026-05-08—-$17.35
2026-05-09-$13.51-$20.25
2026-05-10-$13.93-$20.88
2026-05-11-$14.14-$24.77
2026-05-13-$21.87-$34.33
2026-05-14-$22.02-$33.60
2026-05-15-$28.40-$42.89
2026-05-19-$42.34-$52.15
2026-05-20-$43.93-$53.70
2026-05-24-$55.37-$67.86
2026-05-25-$57.32-$71.16
2026-05-26-$63.06-$81.04
2026-05-27-$68.11-$87.92
2026-05-28-$69.31-$93.27
2026-05-29-$73.71-$94.85
2026-05-30-$77.73-$95.07
2026-05-31-$83.85-$103.50
2026-06-01-$88.62-$109.77
2026-06-02-$93.95-$118.30
2026-06-03-$97.57-$121.13
2026-06-04-$104.84-$132.32
2026-06-05-$111.38-$132.53
2026-06-06-$117.35-$141.60
2026-06-07-$122.85-$144.43
2026-06-08-$125.12-$147.36
2026-06-09-$134.97-$155.31
2026-06-10-$138.83-$158.87
2026-06-11-$145.01-$163.77
2026-06-12-$150.81-$169.28
2026-06-13-$157.36-$177.66
2026-06-14-$158.08-$181.94
2026-06-15-$164.46-$187.49
2026-06-16-$171.40-$197.28
2026-06-17-$179.15-$198.98
2026-06-18-$184.65-$207.50
2026-06-19-$189.80-$211.39
2026-06-20-$194.73-$219.09
2026-06-21-$200.87-$218.83
2026-06-22-$205.38-$223.23
2026-06-23-$212.15-$230.24
2026-06-24-$214.54-$233.38
2026-06-25-$217.76-$235.58
2026-06-26-$221.91-$241.46
2026-06-27-$227.98-$246.88
2026-06-28-$232.03-$247.98
2026-06-29-$234.90-$248.88
2026-06-30-$241.65-$255.37
2026-07-01-$246.46-$255.63
2026-07-02-$250.27-$257.99
2026-07-03-$255.04-$267.27
2026-07-04-$258.55-$275.14
2026-07-05-$261.71-$280.65
2026-07-06-$267.33-$283.11
2026-07-13-$272.58-$288.90
2026-07-17-$276.70-$293.58
2026-07-18-$279.76-$292.52
2026-07-19-$283.90-$292.56
2026-07-20-$287.78-$292.97
2026-07-21-$293.95—
2026-07-22-$297.55-$298.37
2026-07-23-$304.54-$303.38
2026-07-24-$310.75-$310.20
2026-07-25-$317.12-$315.96
2026-07-26-$322.15-$317.59
2026-07-27-$325.52-$319.29
2026-07-28-$329.73-$325.29
2026-07-29-$332.45-$324.45
2026-07-30-$334.59-$329.61
2026-07-31-$337.99-$330.83
2026-08-01-$343.48-$336.91
2026-08-02-$348.71-$346.04
2026-08-03-$353.36-$350.13
2026-08-05—-$365.08
2026-08-06-$364.83-$365.17
2026-08-07-$370.24—
2026-08-08-$374.84-$378.75
2026-08-09-$377.78-$378.78
2026-08-10-$383.39-$385.44
2026-08-11-$388.49-$392.73
2026-08-12-$387.29-$389.06
2026-08-13-$391.97-$394.63
2026-08-14-$396.60-$404.83
2026-08-15-$401.33-$407.19
2026-08-16-$406.23-$412.75
2026-08-17-$410.31-$421.34
2026-08-18-$415.81-$432.95
2026-08-19-$417.67-$435.49
2026-08-20-$424.30-$441.03
2026-08-21-$428.87-$446.72
2026-08-22-$429.76-$451.21
2026-08-23-$434.39-$455.26
2026-08-24-$439.11-$465.19
2026-08-25-$442.24-$470.20
2026-08-26-$450.63-$474.58
2026-08-27-$454.98-$480.15
2026-08-28-$460.31-$487.48
2026-08-29-$466.42-$488.75
2026-08-30-$470.04-$493.28
2026-08-31-$474.54-$499.39
2026-09-01-$482.69-$504.23
2026-09-02-$485.46-$507.84
2026-09-03-$490.28-$503.83
2026-09-04-$492.51-$509.31
2026-09-05-$495.86-$506.27
2026-09-06-$498.44-$506.86
2026-09-07-$506.14-$515.18
2026-09-08-$511.45-$518.33
2026-09-09-$516.65-$528.15
2026-09-10-$524.56-$537.49
2026-09-11-$531.26-$545.88
2026-09-12-$536.90-$552.30
2026-09-13-$543.29-$556.33
2026-09-14-$550.80-$566.17
2026-09-16-$561.90-$579.83
2026-09-17-$562.82-$580.56
2026-09-18-$568.23-$592.72
2026-09-19-$570.44-$600.86
2026-09-20-$574.88-$610.56
2026-09-21-$579.55-$618.89
2026-09-22-$584.77-$624.73
2026-09-23-$590.08-$631.27
2026-09-24-$599.14-$640.24
2026-09-25-$604.49-$642.58
2026-09-26-$609.72-$654.10
2026-09-27-$617.44-$655.79
2026-09-28-$625.80-$661.72
2026-09-29-$631.11-$663.04
2026-09-30-$637.35-$669.43
2026-10-03-$648.77—
2026-10-04-$649.40-$684.54
2026-10-05-$652.67-$689.22
2026-10-06-$662.11-$696.67
2026-10-10-$669.87-$710.78
2026-10-11-$670.77-$710.61
2026-10-12-$675.19-$712.51
2026-10-13-$678.25-$715.31
2026-10-14-$686.04-$723.33
2026-10-15-$693.79-$727.30
2026-10-16-$701.90-$737.98
2026-10-17—-$755.10