Tide Forecast
weather betting bot · plain-English view
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Your money

Cash in Kalshi
$10.09
what you have left to bet with
Money in play
$0.01
0 bets on Kalshi · pays back when settled
Won/lost so far
-$9.77
across 227 settled bets
Win rate
55%
125 won · 102 lost

Best win: +$0.91 — "DC low lands at 56°F" · Worst loss: -$0.92 — "Denver low stays under 42.5°F"

Recent bets

Bet Cost Status Won/Lost
Minneapolis low lands at 52°F
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY24-T52
$0.19settled-$0.21
DC low stays under 52.5°F
KXLOWTDC-26MAY24-B52.5
$0.70settled+$0.28
DC low stays under 54.5°F
KXLOWTDC-26MAY24-B54.5
$0.57settled-$0.59
Dallas low stays under 65.5°F
KXLOWTDAL-26MAY23-B65.5
$0.22settled-$0.24
Dallas low stays under 63.5°F
KXLOWTDAL-26MAY24-B63.5
$0.92settled+$0.07
Dallas low stays under 65.5°F
KXLOWTDAL-26MAY24-B65.5
$0.66settled+$0.32
Dallas low stays under 67.5°F
KXLOWTDAL-26MAY24-B67.5
$0.65settled-$0.67
Chicago low stays under 56.5°F
KXLOWTCHI-26MAY24-B56.5
$0.78settled+$0.20
Chicago low misses 57°F band
KXLOWTCHI-26MAY24-T57
$0.38settled-$0.40
Boston low stays under 49.5°F
KXLOWTBOS-26MAY24-B49.5
$0.66settled+$0.32
▾ Details for the curious — model edge, calibration, freshness

Prediction & expected return

Mean V0 edge (open)
19.9%
avg |V0 yes − market yes| across open positions
Predicted vs actual
15% 32%
V0 settled · n=5048 · gap -17.0 pp
$/100 trades
-$4.91
V0 settled · n=5048
Backtest t-stat
+2.69
Phase 0 fade-YES rule, 266 bets
Annualized $
-$17.76
V0 settled · n=5048 extrapolated
Brier score
0.247
V0 Brier · n=5048 · lower is better

State

Paper open
214
5259 settled · simple-rule strategy
V0 open
206
175 NO · 31 YES
Paper net P&L
-$232.03
all-time settled
V0 net P&L
-$247.98

Data freshness

NWS forecasts
168,480
last pulled 17h ago
NWS observations
25,231
last pulled 17h ago

Reports

Recent reports