Tide Forecast
weather betting bot · plain-English view
Settlement barometernet result · all settled bets
-$9.77
REAL MONEY - net across 227 settled bets

Operator state · Phase 0 · as of 2026-10-18 14:15 UTC FRESH 13h ago

Paper mode

Tide Forecast is in paper-trading mode — tracking what it would have bet without spending real money.

Wins more often than it loses (55% win rate) but still -$9.77 net — the average loss is bigger than the average win. Hit rate is not edge until net P&L turns positive.

55%
Win rate · 227 settled · but net downREAL
-$9.77
Realized P&L · REAL MONEYREAL

01 Your money real money on Kalshi

Cash in Kalshi
—
what you have left to bet with
Money in play
$0.01
0 bets on Kalshi · pays back when settled
Won/lost so far
-$9.77
across 227 settled bets
Win rate
55%
125 won · 102 lost · still net negative

Best win: +$0.91 — “DC low lands at 56°F” · Worst loss: -$0.92 — “Denver low stays under 42.5°F”

02 Recent bets last ten, plain-English

Bet Cost Status Won/Lost
YES KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS
KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS
$0.54placing…—
NO KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT09WYOSJSU-SJSU7
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT09WYOSJSU-SJSU7
$0.57placing…—
YES KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26OCT10SWANOR-SWA
KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26OCT10SWANOR-SWA
$0.39placing…—
NO KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05HNDJAM-HND
KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05HNDJAM-HND
$0.53placing…—
YES KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11DETARI-DET5
KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11DETARI-DET5
$0.49placing…—
YES KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05GTMSUR-GTM
KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05GTMSUR-GTM
$0.52placing…—
YES KXUEFANLGAME-26OCT05FRABEL-FRA
KXUEFANLGAME-26OCT05FRABEL-FRA
$0.33placing…—
NO KXCS2GAME-26OCT051230FALVIT-FAL
KXCS2GAME-26OCT051230FALVIT-FAL
$0.59placing…—
NO KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10CMUOHIO-OHIO4
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10CMUOHIO-OHIO4
$0.56placing…—
NO KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10ILLMSU-ILL4
KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10ILLMSU-ILL4
$0.57placing…—
▸ Details for the curious model edge, calibration, freshness

03 Prediction & expected return

Mean V0 edge (open)
23.8%
avg |V0 yes − market yes| across open positions
Predicted vs actual
15% → 33%
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14945PAPER-V0 · gap -18.2 pp
$/100 trades
-$5.05
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14945PAPER-V0
Backtest t-stat
+2.69
Phase 0 fade-YES rule, 266 betsBACKTEST
Annualized $
-$6.17
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14945 extrapolatedPAPER-V0
Brier score
0.259
PAPER - V0 Brier - n=14945PAPER-V0 · lower is better

04 State

Paper open
205
15732 settled · simple-rule strategy
V0 open
153
121 NO · 32 YES
Paper net P&L (SIMPLE)
-$701.90
all-time settled
V0 net P&L (PAPER)
-$755.10

05 Data freshness

NWS forecasts
502,008
last pulled 13h ago
NWS observations
77,104
last pulled 13h ago

06 Reports & archive pinned views, then every dated run

Dated daily runs (most recent first)