55%
Win rate · 227 settled · but net downREAL
Settlement barometernet result · all settled bets
-$9.77
REAL MONEY - net across 227 settled bets
Operator state · Phase 0 · as of 2026-10-06 05:15 UTC FRESH 4h ago
Paper mode
Tide Forecast is in paper-trading mode — tracking what it would have bet without spending real money.
Wins more often than it loses (55% win rate) but still -$9.77 net — the average loss is bigger than the average win. Hit rate is not edge until net P&L turns positive.
-$9.77
Realized P&L · REAL MONEYREAL
01 Your money real money on Kalshi
Cash in Kalshi
$3.64
what you have left to bet with
Money in play
$0.01
0 bets on Kalshi · pays back when settled
Won/lost so far
-$9.77
across 227 settled bets
Win rate
55%
125 won · 102 lost · still net negative
Best win: +$0.91 — “DC low lands at 56°F” · Worst loss: -$0.92 — “Denver low stays under 42.5°F”
02 Recent bets last ten, plain-English
| Bet | Cost | Status | Won/Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26OCT10SWANOR-SWA KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26OCT10SWANOR-SWA | $0.39 | placing… | — |
| NO KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05HNDJAM-HND KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05HNDJAM-HND | $0.53 | placing… | — |
| YES KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11DETARI-DET5 KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11DETARI-DET5 | $0.49 | placing… | — |
| YES KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05GTMSUR-GTM KXCONCACAFNLGAME-26OCT05GTMSUR-GTM | $0.52 | placing… | — |
| YES KXUEFANLGAME-26OCT05FRABEL-FRA KXUEFANLGAME-26OCT05FRABEL-FRA | $0.33 | placing… | — |
| NO KXCS2GAME-26OCT051230FALVIT-FAL KXCS2GAME-26OCT051230FALVIT-FAL | $0.59 | placing… | — |
| NO KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10CMUOHIO-OHIO4 KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10CMUOHIO-OHIO4 | $0.56 | placing… | — |
| NO KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10ILLMSU-ILL4 KXNCAAFSPREAD-26OCT10ILLMSU-ILL4 | $0.57 | placing… | — |
| YES KXCS2MAP-26OCT051000TYLOOM80-2-TYLOO KXCS2MAP-26OCT051000TYLOOM80-2-TYLOO | $0.38 | placing… | — |
| NO KXCS2MAP-26OCT051000MOUZTS-1-MOUZ KXCS2MAP-26OCT051000MOUZTS-1-MOUZ | $0.05 | placing… | — |
▸ Details for the curious model edge, calibration, freshness
03 Prediction & expected return
Mean V0 edge (open)
22.2%
avg |V0 yes − market yes| across open positions
Predicted vs actual
15%
→
33%
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14039PAPER-V0 · gap -18.0 pp
$/100 trades
-$4.96
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14039PAPER-V0
Backtest t-stat
+2.69
Phase 0 fade-YES rule, 266 betsBACKTEST
Annualized $
-$6.45
PAPER - V0 settled - n=14039 extrapolatedPAPER-V0
Brier score
0.258
PAPER - V0 Brier - n=14039PAPER-V0 · lower is better
04 State
Paper open
206
14998 settled · simple-rule strategy
V0 open
197
163 NO · 34 YES
Paper net P&L (SIMPLE)
-$662.11
all-time settled
V0 net P&L (PAPER)
-$696.67
05 Data freshness
NWS forecasts
477,048
last pulled 4h ago
NWS observations
73,109
last pulled 4h ago
06 Reports & archive pinned views, then every dated run
Daily report
Today’s P&L, hit rate, settled trades, open forecasts
Strategy comparison
Simple-rule vs V0 — paired Brier, equity curves, t-stat
Latest weekly scorecard
2026-W40.md — Sonnet 4.6 GRAVITAS audit
Latest monthly memo
2026-09.md — Opus 4.7 strategic audit
Dated daily runs (most recent first)
- tideforecast-2026-10-06.html2026-10-06 01:28
- tideforecast-2026-10-05.html2026-10-05 01:27
- tideforecast-2026-10-04.html2026-10-04 01:27
- tideforecast-2026-10-03.html2026-10-03 01:26
- tideforecast-2026-10-02.html2026-10-02 01:17
- tideforecast-2026-10-01.html2026-10-01 01:00
- tideforecast-2026-09-30.html2026-09-30 01:23